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Fundamental analysis is the study of economic news events. Traders watch economic data closely, as changes in the health of an economy can affect financial markets. Therefore, if an important news event shows economic growth or decline, studying news and events will be critical to predicting trends.
Some major economic events that can affect global markets:
Central Bank Interest Rate Meetings: If a central bank raises its interest rate, holders of that country’s currency will receive higher yields for their cash investments. The higher interest rate will then attract demand for that currency.
Employment Data: Although often termed a lagging indicator, employment data is the second most watched economic event. This is because countries with growing employment levels are considered to exhibit a healthy economy.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): The trickiest of all economic indicators is CPI. CPI measures a country’s inflation levels. Falling inflation levels will often lead to currency weakness as traders view a weak CPI reading as signs that a county’s economy is slowing. However, too much inflation can also be negative as may be an indication that a country’s currency is being devalued.
Traders use Technical Analysis to measure supply and demand. Technical analysis utilizes mathematical formulas to analyze overall changes in prices.
For the most part, traders will use technical analysis to measure whether a stock or currency is undervalued, overvalued, or whether its momentum is building, which could possibly cause a sharp change in prices.
Key indicators and chart patterns used by traders:
Trend lines: There are two types of trends – uptrends and downtrends. An uptrend occurs when a stock or currency pair moves high and trades at higher prices as it rises. This is an indication that buyers are becoming more aggressive. A downtrend occurs when a stock trades at lower rates as its price falls.
Support/Resistance: Support is a level of buying demand, while resistance is an area of selling pressure. For example, if in a particular chart, after every drop of the EUR/USD to 1.3000 it quickly jumps to 1.3100, this indicates that there is buying demand at the 1.3000 level that is supporting prices.
Moving Averages: Moving averages are calculated based on the average price over a particular timeframe. For example, a 50-period moving average calculates the average price over the last 50 periods of a trading instrument. Traders use moving averages to identify support/resistance levels in the market.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands measure the standard deviation of a moving average. It is used to determine when Forex instruments are overbought or oversold. Depending on the strategy, Forex traders will often buy when current prices trade below the lower Bollinger Band and sell when prices rise above the upper Bollinger Band.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures a trading instrument’s recent gains versus losses over a given period. A rising number indicates upside momentum is increasing.